Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.273481 2.413333 2.561284 2.730138 2.918357 3.122701 3.362681
2025-05-04 2.097460 2.293599 2.511920 2.775450 3.088403 3.452771 3.916178
2025-05-11 1.950026 2.173616 2.430940 2.753629 3.154430 3.645924 4.311288
2025-05-18 1.840919 2.082268 2.367301 2.735745 3.210512 3.818913 4.689451
2025-05-25 1.749466 2.002196 2.306982 2.710966 3.248013 3.963220 5.039430
2025-06-01 1.671983 1.932476 2.252241 2.685341 3.277112 4.093096 5.380275
2025-06-08 1.616626 1.885919 2.222092 2.687003 3.339613 4.271607 5.816064
2025-06-15 1.578457 1.858146 2.213113 2.714335 3.437509 4.508821 6.381607
2025-06-22 1.517805 1.797901 2.157469 2.672640 3.430630 4.583909 6.682869
2025-06-29 1.461160 1.740115 2.101781 2.626611 3.412332 4.636982 6.950821
2025-07-06 1.404470 1.679847 2.039744 2.567469 3.368919 4.643588 7.130625
2025-07-13 1.383647 1.666193 2.040142 2.597624 3.464032 4.888530 7.823504
2025-07-20 1.368262 1.659642 2.050547 2.643904 3.589954 5.205181 8.755100
2025-07-27 1.352099 1.651214 2.057663 2.685333 3.711309 5.530279 9.807700
2025-08-03 1.317858 1.616464 2.025597 2.664582 3.726467 5.657933 10.422648
2025-08-10 1.287022 1.585282 1.997212 2.647642 3.746222 5.796201 11.109886
2025-08-17 1.256199 1.553039 1.965900 2.624172 3.752326 5.907299 11.760930
2025-08-24 1.226950 1.522056 1.935188 2.599893 3.754821 6.010860 12.429533
2025-08-31 1.206549 1.502923 1.921120 2.601468 3.803782 6.219356 13.520060
2025-09-07 1.193824 1.494248 1.922107 2.627363 3.899298 6.544388 15.185773
2025-09-14 1.164536 1.460882 1.884779 2.587856 3.868266 6.576094 15.779233
2025-09-21 1.135526 1.427207 1.845973 2.544217 3.826451 6.577807 16.262908
2025-09-28 1.104552 1.389996 1.800792 2.488107 3.757177 6.506554 16.416671